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Picture this: it’s World War II, and a remote island in the Pacific is suddenly occupied by a foreign military force. The native islanders watch in awe as the soldiers unload their cargo planes, filled with supplies and food that the islanders had never seen before. The soldiers build a runway out of bamboo, and planes start landing and taking off regularly. But then, just as suddenly as they came, the soldiers leave as the war ends, taking all of their cargo with them.
The islanders are left behind, staring at the empty runway, wondering when the planes will return.
This is the story of the famous “bamboo runway,” one of the most striking examples of Cargo Cult Thinking (or Cargo Cult Science). The islanders believed that by building a replica of the runway and mimicking the behaviours of the soldiers, they could bring back the planes and their cargo. But of course, that never happened.
What is Cargo Cult Thinking?
This is the essence of Cargo Cult Thinking: imitating behaviours without understanding how they work in the hope of achieving the same results. The rooster that crows in the morning doesn’t cause the sun to rise. Likewise, cajoling the rooster to crow earlier will not make the day longer.
Cargo Cult Thinking is the belief that if we simply emulate the visible effects of achievement, the real achievement will follow automatically. It’s a dangerous trap that many of us fall into, both in our personal and professional lives.
The Feynman Principle – Cargo Cult Science
Richard Feynman, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, gave a speech titled “Cargo Cult Science” at Caltech in 1974 1 Richard P. Feynman, Cargo Cult Science (1974) – This is one of the best speeches you will ever read. . He used the analogy of the Pacific islanders which we read about in the introduction.
Feynman described the scientific practices that appear to be scientific on the surface, but lack a rigorous understanding of the underlying principles. In his speech, Feynman cautioned against “cargo cult science,” saying that it “resembles real science in every way except one: it doesn’t work.” He stressed the importance of honesty, scepticism, and critical thinking in scientific research, and urged scientists to be open to the possibility that their theories might be wrong.
Feynman’s speech remains a classic warning against the dangers of superficial thinking and the need for intellectual honesty in inquiry. In the age of fake news and alternative facts, his message is more relevant than ever.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.
So we really ought to look into theories that don’t work, and science that isn’t science.
Richard Feynman, Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman
The term “cargo cult” has come under scrutiny recently, with some arguing that it fails to capture the full reality and reflects a Western bias. Nancy McDowell posits that the focus on “cargo” overlooks the broader social and cultural context in which these movements arise, including politics and economics. Instead, she suggests that the phenomenon is better understood as a response to sudden and dramatic change, which is expressed through the ideology of cargo cults 2 Ton Otto, What Happened to Cargo Cults? (2009) .
Elizabeth Holmes and the Black Turtleneck
Cargo Cult Thinking has a prominent place in modern business thinking as well.
Elizabeth Holmes, the disgraced CEO of Theranos, famously emulated the late Steve Jobs by wearing a black turtleneck. However, despite the initial success of Theranos, it became clear that Holmes and her team had mixed cause and effect, focusing more on the appearance of innovation and success than on actually creating a functional product. Wearing a black turtleneck doesn’t cause a company to succeed.
Cargo Cult Thinking in business is the way that companies often prioritize metrics over actual outcomes (📊). For instance, a sales team might focus on increasing the number of phone calls they make or emails they send, without considering whether those efforts are actually resulting in more sales. Similarly, a marketing team might prioritize increasing social media engagement, without considering whether that engagement is translating into increased sales or brand loyalty.
The Key Takeaway
Cargo Cult Thinking can be a dangerous trap that many fall into. It’s essential to understand the principles behind any successful behaviour rather than merely copying the visible effects. We need to look beyond the surface and understand the deeper, underlying principles of success (my article on using First Principle Thinking).
🧐 Understand the underlying principles: Instead of just copying the surface-level behaviours of successful people, take the time to understand the underlying principles that drive their success. This will give you a deeper understanding of how things work and enable you to create your own unique approach.
🧪 Test your assumptions: Don’t assume that just because something has worked in the past, it will continue to work in the future. Be willing to test your assumptions and experiment with new approaches. This will help you avoid the trap of assuming that a specific action always leads to a specific result.
🔍 Focus on what really matters: Don’t get distracted by superficial metrics or vanity metrics that don’t truly reflect success. Instead, focus on the key drivers of your goals and measure your progress accordingly. This will help you avoid the trap of chasing after the appearance of success rather than actual success.
The bamboo runway didn’t work; building an airfield that looks like the one from the war won’t bring the planes back. Be mindful of Cargo Cult Thinking and don’t fall into the trap of simply copying the visible effects of success.
🧠 Remember: imitation is not innovation. Cargo cults might get you to a certain point, but they won’t take you to the top. To truly succeed, you must understand the principles that underlie the success you seek.
Footnotes:
- 1Richard P. Feynman, Cargo Cult Science (1974) – This is one of the best speeches you will ever read.
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