Skip to content 
Luck isn’t just a chance occurrence; it’s something you can cultivate. By taking deliberate actions, sharing your efforts, and staying open to opportunities, you can increase your luck surface area. This means putting yourself out there, embracing new experiences, and actively engaging with the world.
Alexander Fleming and The Art of Manufacturing Luck
We all know the story of Alexander Fleming and his lucky discovery of penicillin.
While away on holiday, Mr. Fleming returned to find mould growing on a Petri dish of Staphylococcus bacteria. Remarkably, this mould produced a chemical that killed the bacteria.
This serendipitous discovery led to penicillin, the first widely used antibiotic.
However, a key detail often overlooked is that Fleming was actually experimenting. Yes, he stumbled upon penicillin by chance, but he was actively working on something. He didn’t just get lucky, he worked to get lucky.
So, is luck merely a happy accident? Not quite. It leans more towards serendipity—a mix of chance and intentional action.
Now, let’s learn how you can create your own luck through something known as the Luck Surface Area and creating your very own serendipity vehicle.
Once something is done, you can build on it. Once you get started, momentum can grow. When you show up, you can get lucky.
– Ryan Holiday
🚨 Quick sidebar: Enjoying what you’re reading? Bet you’ve got a friend who would too. Share and help me grow this community.
Psttt, they will also get a free copy of my ebook, Framework for Thoughts, when they sign up!
Luck Isn’t Random: A Four-Level Journey
Luck is the ultimate outcome of a thousand tiny decisions, a bunch of daily habits that nudge you to get lucky.
James H. Austin1Though the idea dates back to 1978, it was repopularised by Marc Andreessen in 2007 and then again, by Naval Ravikant in 2019. breaks down luck into four distinct levels in Chase, Chance, and Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty:
Blind Luck: The Wild Card
This is completely uncontrollable. It is what most people mean when they talk about luck. A good example of this is winning the lottery.
Another example is what Warren Buffett described in the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway AGM as the “ovarian lottery”:
You don’t know whether you’re going to be born rich or poor, male or female, infirm or able-bodied, in the United States or Afghanistan. All you know is that you get to take one ball out of a barrel with 5.8 billion balls in it. And that’s you…
You’re going to participate in what I call the Ovarian Lottery. And that is the most important thing that’s ever going to happen to you in your life. It’s going to determine way more than what school you go to, how hard you work, all kinds of things.
Motion Luck: Hustle Hard
By constantly moving, creating, and hustling, you’re essentially inviting luck into your life. The more you’re out there, the higher your chances of serendipitous encounters. This is where the concept of ‘Luck Surface Area’ really starts to shine, but more on that in a bit.
Spotting Luck: The Expert’s Eye
Ever wonder how some people just seem to have a knack for being in the right place at the right time? That’s because their deep knowledge in an area allows them to spot opportunities invisible to others.
Alexander Fleming’s example from the start was this kind of luck. Even Newton. Millions of people had seen an apple fall from a tree but Newton not only decided to sit under a tree that day but had deep knowledge in that area for him to make the big discovery.
Unique Crazy Luck: The Magnet Effect
At this zenith, your personal brand of magic draws luck towards you. By being unparalleled in your field, you become a magnet for opportunities that align perfectly with your skills. Luck Surface Area will help you here as well.
For instance, venture capitalists with a knack for a certain sector will find the best startups gravitating towards them.
You progress from Level 1 – Level 3 Luck in stages:
- Level I shapes the canvas of your early years.
- Level II gains momentum as you dive headfirst into life’s hustle in your 20s.
- Level III blooms from the seeds of wisdom and expertise you cultivate into your 30s.
Level IV is unique—it’s dislocated from age dependency but based on your unique set of expertise. In the digital era, expertise isn’t locked behind credentials or gatekeepers but earned online.
Luck Surface Area is all about earning this expertise and broadcasting it.
How to Increase Your Luck Surface Area: The Formula for Fortune
So, what do you do with the above information? Obviously, we try to get lucky more often.
Enter Luck Surface Area. It’s essentially the synergy between how vigorously you pursue your passions and how broadly you share them with others.
Simply put: luck = (actions you are doing) x (number of people you’re telling about the actions).
The idea was introduced by Jason Roberts and here’s why it works:
When you pour energy into a passion, you develop an expertise and an expertise of any kind is valuable. But quite often that value can actually be magnified by the number people who are made aware of it.
If you want to move the needle and increase your Luck Surface Area:
- Step 1: Add value; do good work.
- Step 2: Make noise; broadcast your story.
As Kevin Kelly puts it, whenever you can’t decide which path to take, pick the one that produces change. You can read more such wise nuggets in my article on Kevin Kelly’s book, Excellent Advice for Living.
On the Road to Increasing Luck: Assemble Your Serendipity Vehicle
To widen your luck surface area, consider constructing your “serendipity vehicle.” This means doing outstanding work and making it easy for others to discover you:
🧭 Grab That Drink Razor: When faced with two choices, opt for the one that promises change and increases your Luck Surface Area. You won’t get lucky watching TV and ordering pizza alone. Going out, meeting new people, and grabbing a drink will significantly improve your chance of change. I talk about this in my article on why friendships fade in your 30s and how to keep them going strong.
Being active in the community, and mingling with like-minded individuals, amplifies the impact of your efforts. Remember, the action is in the arena, not on the sidelines. This will pave the way for Level 2 Luck, Motion Luck.
🔨 Build, In Public: In today’s connected world, openly sharing your work—whether through writing, creating, or engaging online—accelerates the journey to Level 4 Luck, or Unique Crazy Luck.
Crafting value and building a personal brand attract luck directly to your doorstep. Icons like Shane Parrish, James Clear, Ali Abdaal, and MKBHD illustrate the power of expertise, unique perspectives, and the magic of broadcasting one’s work.
🫱🏻🫲🏽 Be A Connector: Act as a bridge for others. The value you help create by connecting people often finds its way back to you, enriching your network and embedding you further into your ecosystem.
Once you have created a connection, keep in touch. Most people are so bad at keeping in touch that they will appreciate you doing it.
↯ Take the Zig Zag Path: Do opposites. Work on many things at the same time. Cross-pollinate ideas from different industries, disciplines, and places. Take on non-linear opportunities, steering towards Level 4 Luck.
🙌🏼 Give Freely: When you put out good energy, it tends to come back to you—often multiplied. The universe has a funny way of returning the energy we put out. This can be observed in so many instances online when people take on permissionless apprenticeships, again generating Level 2 Luck.
Create Your Own Luck
To manufacture luck, expand your Luck Surface Area. Add value, broadcast your work, and build connections. Remember, luck is where preparation meets opportunity.
Ask anyone you admire: Their lucky breaks happened on a detour from their main goal. So embrace detours. Life is not a straight line for anyone.
– Kevin Kelly
Footnotes:
- 1Though the idea dates back to 1978, it was repopularised by Marc Andreessen in 2007 and then again, by Naval Ravikant in 2019.
