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In 1960, a small hygiene campaign started by the Chinese government ended up contributing to the Great Chinese Famine that killed millions of people. The unintended consequence of this campaign was a result of a lack of second-order thinking. An immediate problem was solved without considering the long-term ripple effects of the solution.
The ability to look past the current situation and understand the second, third, and nth-order consequences is a powerful mental model and a must-have in your thinking toolbox.
The Story of Sparrows, Pans, and the Great Famine
As part of the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong’s administration started the Four Pests campaign1 Kreston, R. (2019) Paved with good intentions: Mao Tse-Tung’s “four pests” disaster, Discover Magazine. Discover Magazine. Available at: https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/paved-with-good-intentions-mao-tse-tungs-four-pests-disaster in China in an effort to improve public health and increase agricultural production.
The Four Pests Campaign ran between 1958-1962. The premise was simple: mosquitoes were responsible for malaria, rodents caused the plague, and flies were a nuisance. Finally, the tree sparrows ate grain seed and fruit.
Eradicate them all!👺
The first three pests – mosquitoes, rodents, and flies – were targeted using traditional pest control methods, such as insecticides, rodenticides, and flypaper. However, the campaign against the fourth pest – sparrows – was more aggressive and controversial.
They organized people to destroy sparrow nests, break their eggs, and kill them with slingshots. They even went as far as hitting noisy pots to prevent sparrows from resting in their nests so they would die of exhaustion. As a result of these measures, the sparrow population was almost eradicated from China.
And then came the ripple effect. 🤦🏽♂️
You see, sparrows eat grains but they also feed on insects and locusts. The extermination of sparrows had upset the ecological balance, which subsequently resulted in surging locust and insect populations that destroyed crops due to a lack of a natural predator. The locust excess was able to swarm freely over the country, eating the majority of the agriculture intended for human consumption.2 Pariona, A. (2017) The four pests campaign: Objectives, execution, failure, and consequences, WorldAtlas. WorldAtlas. Available at: https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-four-pests-campaign-objectives-execution-failure-and-consequences.html
Instead of increasing, the crop yield plunged in China, which subsequently was one of the reasons for the Great Chinese Famine, which killed 15-50 million people3Akbar, Arifa (17 September 2010). “Mao’s Great Leap Forward ‘killed 45 million in four years'”. The Independent. Archived from the original on 11 May 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2017.
🙃 Here’s the kicker – the Chinese government eventually resorted to importing 250,000 sparrows from the Soviet Union to replenish the population4Elhassan, Khalid. “The Oddest Conspiracies That Ever Saw the Light of Day.” History Collection, November 22, 2022. https://historycollection.com/the-oddest-conspiracies-that-ever-saw-the-light-of-day/27/.
Second-Order Thinking (And Then? Framework)
So, what’s the point of the above story? It’s to talk about a mental model called second-order thinking. Second-order thinking moves beyond the immediate problem and considers the multiple layers of implications and consequences of a given decision. In short, it looks past the simple first-order effects of a decision and deeply examines the second, third, and Nth-order effects.
When you utilise second-order (or nth-order) thinking, you always ask “and then?” after evaluating each order of consequence.
Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored.
Ray Dalio, Principles
Going back to the Chinese Famine, imagine,
🪨 A rock being thrown into a lake disturbing the calm – Mao’s Four Pest Campaign
💦 The initial splash is the first-order effect – sparrows eating fewer grains
But it doesn’t stop there.
🌊 There are subsequent ripples created of second, third, and n-th order – increase in the population of locusts and insects, destruction of crop yield, and famine.
Second-Order Thinking In Practice
Ray Dalio introduced me to second-order thinking, but Howard Marks actually explained the thinking tool in his book.
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in ‘The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.’ Second-level thinking is deep, complex, and convoluted. The second-level thinker takes into account a wide range of variables, uses thinking tools, questions assumptions, challenges the consensus, and looks for opportunities to gain an advantage.”
Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing
💡 An easy way to apply second-order thinking is by asking “and then what?”. Always drill down deeper. Go down the rabbit hole.
Some key things to consider for second-level thinking are:
👨🏼💻 Probability: You should understand the likelihood of different outcomes based on the decision you make. This involves analyzing data, researching previous outcomes in similar situations (use Chesterton’s Fence thinking tool to complement second-order thinking), and using your own intuition to gauge the likelihood of success or failure.
🧐 Range of future outcomes: It’s important to consider not just the most likely outcomes, but the full range of potential outcomes that could result from your decision. This involves considering best-case scenarios, worst-case scenarios, and everything in between.
🧠 Psychology: You should look at the psychological factors at play, both in yourself and in others who may be affected by your decision. This involves considering biases, emotions, and other psychological factors that could influence the outcome of your decision.
🙇🏼♂️ Impact of different choices: Evaluate the impact of making a different decision. This involves analyzing the potential outcomes of different decisions, as well as considering the impact that each decision could have on different stakeholders.
Improve Your Thinking Ability
In summary, second-order thinking is the key to avoiding unintended consequences and unlocking long-term success. Don’t just ask “what will happen?” but also “and then what?” and keep asking until you’ve considered the ripple effect. By doing so, you’ll be better equipped to anticipate future challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
By overlooking the unintended consequences of their actions, those who fail to embrace second-order thinking may end up repeating the mistakes of the Four Pests Campaign, shaping a history they didn’t intend to create.
Footnotes:
- 1Kreston, R. (2019) Paved with good intentions: Mao Tse-Tung’s “four pests” disaster, Discover Magazine. Discover Magazine. Available at: https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/paved-with-good-intentions-mao-tse-tungs-four-pests-disaster
- 2Pariona, A. (2017) The four pests campaign: Objectives, execution, failure, and consequences, WorldAtlas. WorldAtlas. Available at: https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-four-pests-campaign-objectives-execution-failure-and-consequences.html
- 3Akbar, Arifa (17 September 2010). “Mao’s Great Leap Forward ‘killed 45 million in four years'”. The Independent. Archived from the original on 11 May 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2017
- 4Elhassan, Khalid. “The Oddest Conspiracies That Ever Saw the Light of Day.” History Collection, November 22, 2022. https://historycollection.com/the-oddest-conspiracies-that-ever-saw-the-light-of-day/27/
