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In the early 2000s, Kodak, once a dominant force in the photography industry, found itself on the brink of collapse. With digital technology on the rise, their steadfast attachment to traditional film cameras led to their eventual downfall. What blinded Kodak’s leadership to the revolutionary changes happening in their own industry? The answer lies in the powerful cognitive trap known as confirmation bias.
Unravelling Confirmation Bias: Its Origins and Impact on Our Thinking
What is Confirmation Bias?
🧠 Confirmation bias is a psychological phenomenon where people unconsciously favour information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses. They are more likely to search for, interpret, and remember data that supports their ideas while overlooking or discounting evidence that goes against them.
Imagine you’re someone who believes all dogs (🐶) are friendly.
Whenever you see a friendly dog, you think, “See? I knew it! All dogs are friendly.”
But when you come across a grumpy or aggressive dog, you might ignore it. You will think, “It’s just having a bad day.”
That’s confirmation bias at work. Only paying attention to the evidence that supports what you already believe and ignoring the rest.
Confirmation bias, in psychology, is considered a type of cognitive bias that affects our thinking and decision-making process. Our brains seek consistency and avoid discomfort from conflicting beliefs, and values. As a result, we tend to cherry-pick information that aligns with our current views while discarding anything that challenges them.
This can lead to faulty reasoning, misguided judgments, and the reinforcement of stereotypes.
Simply put, it’s like wearing rose-coloured glasses that allow you to ignore all the red flags.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that.
Richard Feynman, Speech on Cargo Cult Science
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The Discovery of Confirmation Bias: Peter Wason’s Groundbreaking Research
Peter Wason, a British psychologist, was the first to identify confirmation bias in the 1960s. He conducted a series of experiments known as the “Wason selection task” to investigate how people form and test hypotheses1You can read the full research here – Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12(3), 129-140. https://doi.org/10.1080/17470216008416717. .
The methodology used in Wason’s experiment involved asking participants to identify a rule that applied to a series of triples of numbers. Wason provided a rule for the construction of the given sequences of numbers, such as the sequence “2-4-6”.
The subjects were then allowed to construct other sets of three numbers to test their assumptions about the rule that Wason had in mind.
In the results, Wason found that most participants formed a hypothesis about the rule, such as a sequence of even numbers. They then tested it by proposing more sequences of numbers that followed this rule. When these sequences received positive feedback, the participants felt sure about their hypothesis and stopped testing.
However, the rule was simply increasing numbers! 🤯
This demonstrated their predisposition to seek information that supported their initial hypotheses while disregarding data that could contradict them.
Wason’s research revealed that confirmation bias is a deeply ingrained aspect of human cognition.
It affects our ability to objectively evaluate information, leading to flawed decision-making and the perpetuation of misconceptions.
When examining evidence relevant to a given belief, people are inclined to see what they expect to see, and conclude what they expect to conclude.
Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
That’s all interesting, but have we seen confirmation bias in real life?
A Kodak Moment Turned Sour – A Glimpse into the World of Confirmation Bias
Once a titan in the world of photography, Kodak’s downfall serves as a cautionary tale of how confirmation bias can lead even the most successful companies astray. However, the dawn of the digital age would soon turn Kodak’s world upside down.
The Irony: Kodak’s Own Invention
📸 Founded in 1888, Kodak was a household name, and its products adorned shelves worldwide.
However, the dawn of the digital age soon turned Kodak’s world upside down. Surprisingly, it was Kodak’s own engineer, Steve Sasson, who developed the first digital camera prototype in 1975.
But Kodak’s leadership, blinded by their faith in the enduring popularity of film cameras, dismissed digital technology as a passing fad.
The Ill-Fated Decisions
Kodak’s confirmation bias made them resistant to change, causing them to make several strategic missteps along the way.
📉 Firstly, they underinvested in digital technology, believing that their film business would continue to thrive indefinitely.
🙅♂️ Secondly, they delayed the launch of digital cameras, allowing competitors like Canon and Nikon to capture the emerging market.
🤳🏽 Finally, Kodak failed to recognize the growing importance of online photo sharing. Eventually, missing out on the opportunity to dominate this new space.
Kodak’s leaders, including CEO George Fisher and his successors, were instrumental in making these decisions. Blinded by their own preconceptions, they couldn’t see the writing on the wall, even as their competitors surged ahead. They stuck to their belief that film cameras were here to stay, while the world around them rapidly embraced digital technology (🤦🏽♂️).
Lessons Learned: The Price of Confirmation Bias
As the years went by, Kodak’s market share dwindled, and their once-mighty empire began to crumble. The company’s refusal to adapt to the changing landscape finally caught up with them, leading to their bankruptcy in 2012. Kodak, once the epitome of photographic excellence, had become a relic of a bygone era.
Kodak’s story serves as a stark reminder of how confirmation bias can cloud our judgment, leading us to overlook crucial information and make poor decisions. In Kodak’s case, their unwillingness to question their pre-existing beliefs cost them their dominance in the industry and ultimately led to their downfall. So, the next time you find yourself clinging to an idea or belief, remember Kodak’s fate and ask yourself: “Am I seeing the whole picture, or am I just looking for evidence to confirm my own biases?”
For desired conclusions, we ask ourselves, “Can I believe this?”, but for unpalatable conclusions we ask, “Must I believe this?”
Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
Confirmation Bias in Life and Business
Kodak was just an example of confirmation bias. We see confirmation bias in our daily life.
Algorithms, Social Media and Confirmation Bias: A Vicious Cycle
Social media algorithms are designed to keep us engaged by showing us content that aligns with our beliefs and preferences. This filter bubble (👁️🗨️) exacerbates confirmation bias, as we are continually fed information that reinforces our existing viewpoints. As a result, our beliefs become even more deeply entrenched, making it increasingly difficult to break free from the cognitive trap.
In addition, the race for our attention has led businesses to use eye-catching visuals and clickbait headlines that often provide confirming evidence to our existing beliefs. This further strengthens confirmation bias and reduces the likelihood of being exposed to information that challenges our perspectives.
Filter bubbles can have far-reaching consequences, as they contribute to political polarization, misinformation, and a decreased ability to empathize with people who hold different views.
This vicious cycle can lead to a fractured society and hinder productive discourse on important issues (🫠).
Confirmation Bias in Relationships: Love Blindfolded
Ever wondered why we tend to overlook our partner’s flaws or justify their actions when they don’t align with our beliefs? Enter confirmation bias in relationships! 🥰
This sneaky cognitive bias can make us cling to our idealized image of our partner, even when faced with evidence that challenges our perception. So, instead of objectively assessing the situation, we subconsciously cherry-pick information that aligns with our beliefs about our loved ones, while dismissing any contradictory evidence.
It’s like wearing love goggles that make everything rosy and perfect, while the reality might be different.
Confirmation Bias in Marketing: The Power of Persuasion
Marketers are well aware of the power of confirmation bias, and they often leverage it to influence consumer behaviour.
For example, when advertising a product, marketers might use testimonials or expert endorsements that confirm the target audience’s existing beliefs about the product’s value. By doing so, they tap into the consumers’ natural inclination to seek out information that validates their pre-existing opinions.
The end result? A more persuasive marketing campaign that resonates with the target audience, makes it easier to sell the product or service.
The Pervasiveness of Confirmation Bias: News, Friendships, and Health Choices
There are more visible examples of confirmation bias at play.
📰 Choosing News Sources: People often gravitate towards news outlets, websites, or social media groups that align with their political beliefs, values, or opinions. By doing so, they expose themselves primarily to information that confirms their pre-existing views, while avoiding or dismissing alternative perspectives. This confirmation bias can lead to an increasingly polarized worldview and a reluctance to engage with differing opinions.
👫 Friendships and Social Circles: Individuals tend to befriend others who share similar opinions, interests, and values. In these social circles, people may find themselves constantly surrounded by like-minded individuals. This reinforces their existing beliefs and opinions. This creates an echo chamber effect, where confirmation bias is perpetuated through conversations and interactions, making it difficult for someone to challenge or reconsider their beliefs.
🏃♂️ Health and Fitness Beliefs: Confirmation bias can also manifest in the way people approach health and fitness. An individual might strongly believe in a specific diet, workout routine, or health trend and search for information that supports their belief. They will dismiss evidence that contradicts it. This can lead to a skewed understanding of what is genuinely effective or healthy and may cause them to overlook better or more suitable options for their personal needs.
Information that is consistent with our pre-existing beliefs is often accepted at face value, whereas evidence that contradicts them is critically scrutinized and discounted. Our beliefs may thus be less responsive than they should to the implications of new information.
Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
Breaking Free: How to Overcome Confirmation Bias
So, now that you know a lot about confirmation bias, how do you avoid confirmation bias?
🤔 Embrace Critical Thinking: Challenge your own beliefs by asking questions such as “Why am I wrong?” and “What’s the exact opposite of my belief and why does it make sense?” Form a counter-argument to your own stance to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the issue at hand. Techniques like Second Order Thinking and Inversion can be valuable tools for refining your critical thinking skills.
🫧 Seek Diverse Perspectives: Deliberately search for competing ideas from a wide range of sources. This can help disrupt the filter bubble created by algorithms and expose you to different viewpoints. Be cautious of Authority Bias, which can make you more susceptible to believing information simply because it comes from a perceived authority figure.
👂 Practice Active Listening: When engaging in conversations or debates, genuinely listen to the other person’s perspective. Avoid immediately trying to refute their arguments. This can help you become more open to new ideas and counteract confirmation bias. Stoic decision-making principles emphasize the importance of listening and maintaining an open mind.
💭 Reflect on Past Decisions: Analyze your past decisions to identify instances where confirmation bias may have played a role. Recognizing these patterns can help you become more aware of the cognitive traps you’re prone to falling into.
🤯 Encourage Open-Mindedness: Surround yourself with people who are willing to challenge your beliefs. Foster an environment where open and constructive dialogue is encouraged. Remember Chesterton’s Fence, a principle that emphasizes understanding the reasons behind existing beliefs or traditions before seeking to change them. This approach can help you appreciate diverse perspectives and cultivate a more balanced outlook.
Remember, one way that Munger guards against irrationality is by emulating the “extreme objectivity” of scientists such as Charles Darwin, Albert Einstein, and Richard Feynman.
Munger particularly admires their unflinching determination to seek out “disconfirming evidence” that might disprove even their most cherished beliefs.
This mental habit, which takes many different forms, is our fifth defence against idiocy.
From Kodak to Our Daily Lives – Overcoming Confirmation Bias for Better Decision-Making
The story of Kodak serves as a powerful reminder of the dangers of confirmation bias. By acknowledging and actively working to overcome this cognitive trap, we can learn from history and make better decisions in both our personal and professional lives. It’s time to break free from the echo chambers created by algorithms, embrace diverse perspectives, and face the world as it is, rather than how we want to see it.
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.
– Leo Tolstoy
Footnotes:
- 1You can read the full research here – Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12(3), 129-140. https://doi.org/10.1080/17470216008416717.
