STRONG OPINIONS, LOOSELY HELD – A FRAMEWORK TO MAKE DECISIONS

You should take the approach that you’re wrong. Your goal is to be less wrong.

Elon Musk

This quote perfectly sums up the concept of “strong opinions, loosely held” – the reminder to keep an open mind while making quick and strong decisions.

🧠 What Is The Strong Opinions, Loosely Held Framework?

When it comes to forming strong opinions, you need to have learned, experienced and understood an idea. However, if you keep churning on an idea without making any decisions, you’re just being indecisive. That’s why it’s important to make decisions quickly, based on the information you have gathered.

But how do you know if your decision is the right one? That’s where the loosely held part comes in. As new information arises, don’t be afraid to change your decision. Prove yourself wrong by seeking disconfirming evidence and engaging in creative doubt. This process will bring you closer to the truth and help you strengthen your decision.

“Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the ‘strong opinion’ part. Then –and this is the ‘weakly held’ part– prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn’t fit or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually, your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result.”

Paul Saffo

Of course, there are situations where this framework won’t work. For instance, some decisions require more time and are irreversible. However, in most cases, following the “strong opinions, loosely held” approach will not only strengthen your confidence in your decision but also bring you closer to the truth.

🚀 Elon Musk & SpaceX – A Case Study

Elon Musk is a prime example of someone who embodies the concept of “strong opinions, loosely held.” When he founded SpaceX, many experts in the aerospace industry thought he was crazy. But Musk believed that he could make space travel more accessible and affordable for everyone.

His strong opinion was that SpaceX could revolutionize the industry, but he also knew that he could be wrong. He embraced failure, and his team worked hard to prove him wrong by considering every possible scenario and designing rockets with multiple safety features.

When SpaceX’s first three rockets failed, Musk’s critics were quick to point out that his vision was misguided. But he remained committed to his goal and continued to improve the rockets until they achieved success.

🤔 Closing Thoughts

The “strong opinions, loosely held” framework is a powerful tool (read here for my other favourite thinking tools) that can help you make better decisions in life and business. However, it’s important to use it wisely and not be afraid to change your decision when new information arises. Remember to seek disconfirming evidence, not imitate others, and engage in creative doubt to bring yourself closer to the truth.

💡 So, next time you’re at a crossroads, go back to your models and principles, make a decision, and then prove yourself wrong. This process will not only strengthen your confidence in your decision but also help you make progress towards your goals.